{"id":282,"date":"2026-07-10T19:39:25","date_gmt":"2026-07-10T19:39:25","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/americanhousingtransition.com\/?p=282"},"modified":"2026-07-10T19:39:25","modified_gmt":"2026-07-10T19:39:25","slug":"young-people-arent-having-kids-because-their-friends-arent-so-what-can-be-done","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/americanhousingtransition.com\/?p=282","title":{"rendered":"Young People Aren\u2019t Having Kids Because Their Friends Aren\u2019t. So What Can Be Done?"},"content":{"rendered":"

America\u2019s population will begin to decline by the 2050s due to a nationwide decrease in fertility, according to a new report that attributes the decline to damaging cultural norms around family life and friendship.<\/p>\n

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The report, published Tuesday by the Institute for Family Studies (IFS), points to both \u201cpeer culture\u201d and \u201ccelebrity culture\u201d as heavy influences on fertility, as young adults look both to friends who are similarly situated to themselves and role models who they aspire to emulate when considering whether to have children and how many to have.<\/p>\n

\u201c[W]ithout a new birth of family life in America, the greatest days of freedom will indeed be behind us,\u201d the report states, since \u201cthe future of liberty for all of us depends on the future of family.\u201d<\/p>\n

Authored by IFS Senior Fellow Lyman Stone and Research Associate Peter Foreshaw Brookes, the report analyzes the results of a survey of 4,700 Americans and evaluates the connection between cultural norms and fertility, ultimately proposing several approaches for halting the nationwide fertility decline.<\/p>\n

\u201cThis report comes following a massive acceleration in the fertility gap (the gap between the number of children people would like to have and current fertility rates) in the US since 2007,\u201d Brookes told National Review<\/span> in a statement. \u201cThe trends show no sign of abatement and mean incoming human tragedies, including the exacerbation of the existing growth of loneliness and meaningless.\u201d<\/p>\n

Stone and Brookes questioned 18- to 50-year-old Americans about the number of children their three best friends and their closest sibling have in order to evaluate how the families one is in closest proximity to shape one\u2019s desired family size. They then asked respondents to guess how their friends would respond if they had a baby based on eight options \u2014 four \u201cpositive\u201d and four \u201cnegative.\u201d<\/p>\n

They found a correlation between a respondent having friends with children and the respondent\u2019s own desire to have children.<\/p>\n

The report also studied the impact of \u201cpublicly admired figures\u201d on American fertility rates. In doing so, Stone and Brookes listed the figures people said they most admired and researched how many children each one was known to have.<\/p>\n

\u201cComparing family size among admired celebrities to individual aspirations, an admired celebrity having one extra child may increase an individual\u2019s desired family size by as much as 0.15 children,\u201d the study reported.<\/p>\n

The U.S. fertility rate hit a record low of 1.6 births per woman in 2024, the most recent year for which there\u2019s reliable data. That\u2019s well below the rate \u2014 2.4 births per woman \u2014 required to sustain the population at current levels without relying on migration.<\/p>\n

Evidence of this decline is evident across many sectors of society and the economy, but it is especially apparent in education.<\/p>\n

In April, the Philadelphia School District announced the closure of 17 of its schools, listing student enrollment as one of the causes. conducted by the district shows that between the 2014-15 and 2024-25 academic years, the school experienced a 12 percent decline in enrollment.<\/p>\n

The National Center for Education Statistics (NCES) suggests this decline is not an anomaly, predicting that school enrollment numbers will continue to decline nationwide. Between fall 2022 and fall 2031, NCES reports that total nationwide school enrollment is projected to decline by about 5 percent on average for students in preschool to twelfth grade. In states like California and New Mexico, this decline is predicted to be as much as 15 to 16 percent.<\/p>\n

\u201cDeclining birth rates\u00a0are the primary driver for enrollment declines,\u201d an April 2026 report from Education Commission of the States asserts. \u201cThe\u00a0number of births\u00a0in the U.S. has\u00a0fallen steadily\u00a0in recent years with 690,000 fewer children born in 2024 compared to\u00a02007.\u201d<\/p>\n

Since the causes of fertility decline Brookes and Stone diagnose are largely cultural, the government naturally has limited ability to make a difference. American attitudes around family formation will have to change organically, creating a flywheel effect as young adults who are on the fence about starting a family take inspiration from their friends and siblings.<\/p>\n

\u201cTo shape behavioral intentions, it is not enough to passively have friends with kids or to admire an influencer with kids\u2014\u201d their report explains, \u201cprospective parents need peers who are genuinely helpful and supportive, not just those who demonstrate big families.\u201d<\/p>\n

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But the authors do suggest a few \u201cout-of-the-box policy proposals,\u201d which aim to make material conditions more conducive to child rearing.<\/p>\n

One such proposal is offering \u201cgenerous\u201d baby bonuses. The report explains that these five- to six-figure bonuses would expend less than 1 percent of the federal budget, thereby costing less than parental leave and child-care expansions proposed recently.<\/p>\n

\u201c[T]his is a fiscal challenge for all governments which finance themselves from taxation of shrinking working age populations,\u201d Brookes told NR. \u201cTherefore, thinking about how both governments and society at large can best respond to this social and economic problem is not merely warranted\u2014it is incumbent upon us.\u201d<\/p>\n

The authors also suggest offering \u201cchild caregiver credits.\u201d The report explains that these would give stay-at-home parents slightly better retirement benefits; decrease harmful work disruptions, especially for mothers; and illuminate how parents do \u201cthe real work of keeping Social Security solvent by raising future payers.\u201d<\/p>\n

The report also acknowledges that the availability of housing can have a significant impact on fertility rates. \u201cAmerican young people face a housing crisis,\u201d the study explains. \u201cThe federal government can encourage this by adopting an extremely simple program: allocate municipalities and states alike a fixed sum per bedroom of housing completed each year.\u201d<\/p>\n

Brookes told NR that the report makes these \u201cnovel suggestions\u201d in order \u201cto create further debate and focus minds.\u201d<\/p>\n

The report also emphasizes the impact of technology on fertility rates. Citing Caitlin Myers and Ezekiel Hooper\u2019s 2026 economics study \u201cIs the Phone Birth Control? Casual Evidence from AT&T\u2019s 2007-2011 Carrier Monopoly,\u201d Stone and Brookes suggest that phones, social media, and pornography \u201creplace social life, spread new ideas, and alter the landscape of American relationships,\u201d in turn impacting fertility.<\/p>\n

The report predicts that the U.S. population will peak at roughly 351 million in the 2050s, at which point it will begin to decrease due to declining fertility rates. It explains that America is already in its \u201cthird historic period of extended below-replacement-rate fertility,\u201d and this current period of low fertility has lasted longer than any thus far.<\/p>\n

Though many research believe the American population will continue to increase in the 2050s due to immigration, Stone and Brookes disagree, pointing out that all developed countries will be competing for a limited pool of high skill labor as native populations age.<\/p>\n

\u201cReliance on migration for population growth is not a credible strategy in the long run,\u201d the report asserts.<\/p>\n

But IFS insists that this rise in immigration shouldn\u2019t distract from the deeper issue at hand.<\/p>\n

\u201cWe are first and foremost a nation of families, and secondarily (though importantly!) a nation of immigrants,\u201d the report explains.<\/p>\n

Ultimately, Brookes is hopeful that citizens will recognize the gravity of America\u2019s fertility decline and its direct impact on the nation\u2019s population.<\/p>\n

\u201cI am optimistic,\u201d he said, \u201cthat as society becomes aware of the scale of the problem, new and bold policy innovations will become par for the course.\u201d<\/p>\n

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A new report identified the ‘peer effect’ as a major driver of America’s fertility decline.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":281,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[13],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-282","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-culture"],"yoast_head":"\nYoung People Aren\u2019t Having Kids Because Their Friends Aren\u2019t. So What Can Be Done? - American Housing Transition<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/americanhousingtransition.com\/?p=282\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Young People Aren\u2019t Having Kids Because Their Friends Aren\u2019t. 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